From Mashable: Predictify Raises $4.3M To Pay Users For Their Accuracy

Sometimes, it’s just too easy…here’s your free prediction: No Soup For YOU!

There seems to be quite a lot of money chasing these wisdom of the crowd deals.  The problem with predictive markets is that being the person that is right all the time is hard.  Believe me, I’m a legend in my own mind when it comes to being right all the time.

The main issue in the wisdom of the crowds versus the wisdom of the few is that there is little data to support claims that one is better than there, or, and this is more important, that there is any level of consistency in the predictive nature of the crowd.  One could argue that the stock market is the best example of the wisdom of the crowds, with the stock prices always reflecting the “correct” price.  Anyone holding Bear Stearns stock two weeks ago would disagree.With Predictify, the most accurate users are rewarded, but what I want to know is how often this cast of the “most accurate” changes.  It’s a very rare thing to be the portfolio manager at the top of the mutual fund leader board.  Being right all the time is very hard, but I feel pretty good about my claim that Predicitify will have a hard time attracting and retaining users, and an even tougher time with their business model - and they didn’t need to pay me a dime.